Both the ID and UDM won less than one percent of the national vote in the recent election and neither party has anything approaching a national presence. The ID has seats in only three provincial legislatures, one in Gauteng, and two each in both the Western and the Northern Cape. The UDM, which has declined from its heyday, when it won nearly 3.5% of the national vote in the 1999 elections (the first that it had contested), has been reduced to a one-man regional party. In 1999 the party managed to win at least one seat in each of six provincial legislatures, and was the biggest opposition party in the Eastern Cape. It now has seats in only the Eastern Cape legislature, where it is the fourth biggest party, the ANC, Cope, and the DA having won more seats. Any new DA-Cope hybrid which includes the ID or UDM will be doing so only for appearances. The places where the ID and UDM do well (the three Cape provinces) are already places where the DA and Cope have significant support. The Western Cape is already ruled by the DA, while the ID is only the fourth biggest party in the Northern Cape, where the ANC, DA, and Cope all have more support. As mentioned, the same is true of the Eastern Cape, where the UDM has fewer seats than the three big national parties. Members of the ID and UDM would have to accept that their joining any new opposition front would soon see them being swallowed, numerically and ideologically, by the DA and Cope.

 

It is not clear whether the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) would be part of any new opposition alliance. Any value it would bring is also questionable. It is now little more than a KwaZulu-Natal regional party, where it has in any case lost most of its core constituency of rural Zulu voters to the ANC. The IFP’s long-term future probably lies with its joining the ANC or an opposition alliance. If it decides to go it alone, however, it will become irrelevant.

 

The first test that a new opposition party would face will be in the 2011 municipal elections. The ANC has admitted that it is vulnerable, and a number of municipalities could fall to a DA-Cope alliance. It remains to be seen whether recent protests in a number of municipalities will translate into opposition votes.

 

An analysis of election data from some of South Africa’s municipalities for the April elections is to be published in the upcoming South Africa Survey. A number of interesting trends emerge. Of South Africa’s six metro councils: Johannesburg; Ekurhuleni; eThekwini (which includes Durban); Tshwane (which includes Pretoria); Nelson Mandela Bay (which includes Port Elizabeth); and Cape Town; the ANC failed to win a majority of votes cast only in Cape Town. The election results for that city mirrored those of the province, the DA winning just over 50% of the vote, and the ANC securing 33%. Cope managed nearly nine percent. No other party managed to win more than five percent of the vote, the ID coming fourth with just under three percent of the city’s vote. It would thus seem that a DA-Cope front would win Cape Town relatively easily.

 

Of the other five councils, the ANC would be most vulnerable in Nelson Mandela Bay. The party won just over 50% of the vote in that city in the national election. The DA managed to secure nearly 29% of the vote, with Cope managing 17%. This equates to nearly 46%, and indicates that the ANC is relatively weak in this city. In each of the country’s other four metro councils, the ANC gained over 60% of the vote, and more than two-thirds in Ekurhuleni and eThekwini.

 

However, in each of these other metros the proportion of the vote that went to the DA and Cope was relatively healthy.

 

In Ekurhuleni, the combined DA-Cope vote was just under 27%, while in eThekwini it was just over 20%. Of the six metros, eThekwini was the one where the DA and Cope both performed poorest. The DA managed only 18% of the vote, while Cope secured less than three percent. Nearly seven percent of the vote in eThekwini went to the IFP, while 2.5% of the city’s electorate voted for the Minority Front.

 

In Johannesburg, the combined DA-Cope vote was just over 30%, the IFP being the only other opposition party to win more than one percent of the city’s vote. In Tshwane, the DA and Cope together managed to secure nearly 33% of the total vote. In Tshwane the only other opposition party to win more than one percent of the vote was the Freedom Front Plus, which got the support of 2.9% of Tshwane’s voters.

 

Using these results as a basis for analysis, it can be assumed that a DA-Cope alliance would win Cape Town, and possibly Nelson Mandela Bay. In Johannesburg, Tshwane, and possibly Ekurhuleni, a united opposition front could gain a sizeable chunk of the vote, and could cut the ANC’s share to below 60%. The ANC seems impregnable in eThekwini, since the opposition vote is split between four parties.

 

For the long-term benefit of South African democracy it is desirable that the country has a strong opposition. The DA still suffers from the tag of being a party of the privileged minorities, while Cope is afflicted by infighting and leadership squabbles. A new alliance would benefit from the liberation credentials of Cope’s leaders, as well as having the efficient management and media machine that the DA possesses. Even if the putative new party fails to win power, a serious political rival to the ANC could result in the ruling party becoming more accountable, which would only be to the benefit of South Africa.

-          Marius Roodt