Newsletter 143 - Population shows signs of slower growth and future decline
South Africa’s population is growing at a declining rate and will begin to shrink. A provincial breakdown shows that decline, owing to internal migration, is not universal across the nine provinces.
Although the population of South Africa increased between 2006 and 2011, some provinces have seen slowing growth and some even declines. This is according to Statistics South Africa’s Mid-year populationestimates.
Limpopo, the Eastern Cape, the Free State, and the North West are the provinces that have seen their populations decline by between 2% and just under 16%. Among these, the North West shrunk the most and Limpopo the least.
Gauteng‘s population has grown the most, by 23%. Likewise, populations in KwaZulu-Natal, the Western Cape, Mpumalanga, and the Northern Cape have increased by between 11% and 21%. KwaZulu-Natal gained the least.
The decline in growth is illustrated by measuring against an intermediate year. For example, Gauteng’s population grew by 1.2 million between 2006 and 2008. However, between 2008 and 2011 it grew by only 880 000.
Population growth in numbers and rates, 2006 - 11 | |||||
Change: 2006 - 11 | |||||
Province | 2006 | 2008 | 2011 | Numbers | Proportions |
Eastern Cape | 7 051 500 | 6 579 300 | 6 829 958 | -221 542 | -3.1% |
Free State | 2 958 800 | 2 877 700 | 2 759 644 | -199 156 | -6.7% |
Gauteng | 9 211 200 | 10 447 100 | 11 328 203 | +2 117 003 | +23.0% |
KwaZulu-Natal | 9 731 800 | 10 105 500 | 10 819 130 | +1 087 330 | +11.2% |
Limpopo | 5 670 800 | 5 274 800 | 5 554 657 | -116 143 | -2.0% |
Mpumalanga | 3 252 500 | 3 590 000 | 3 657 181 | +404 681 | +12.4% |
North West | 3 858 200 | 3 425 000 | 3 253 390 | -604 810 | -15.7% |
Northern Cape | 910 500 | 1 125 900 | 1 096 731 | +186 231 | +20.5% |
Western Cape | 4 745 500 | 5 262 000 | 5 287 863 | +542 363 | +11.4% |
South Africa | 47 390 900 | 48 687 300 | 50 586 757 | +3 195 857 | +6.7% |
Source: Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), Mid-year population estimates South Africa 2006, Statistical release P0302, 1 August 2006, pp 9-10; Mid-year population estimates 2008, Statistical release P0302, 31 July 2008, pp12-13; Mid-year population estimates 2011, Statistical release P0302, 27 July 2011,pp 14-15
Estimated annual national population growth rates between 2001–02 and 2010–11 show a drop from 1.33% to 1.1%. This is attributed to HIV/AIDS and lower fertility rates. For some provinces, declining growth can also be linked to negative net migration caused by the movement of people to other provinces.
- Thuthukani Ndebele
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